Composite index to determine the risk of food insecurity at the municipal level in El Salvador: Flores-Romero Index

Abstract

Lack of access to safe and nutritious food can lead to serious health problems, and food insecurity can affect productivity, education, and the population's investment capacity, which can negatively impact long-term economic growth. Therefore, it is crucial to have a tool to assess the food security situation in a country and take appropriate measures to address the identified gaps, both at the national and subnational levels.

This article discusses the construction and development of the Flores-Romero Composite Food Insecurity Index in El Salvador; an essential tool for informed decision-making and the promotion of food security at the subnational (municipal) level. The Flores-Romero Index uses an econometric-health model for production forecasting; specifically, a multivariate Vector Autoregressive model to estimate which municipalities will have a production deficit or surplus of maize and/or beans in a given year. It then calculates the Index using variables that comprise a Municipal Prioritization Matrix.

The results allow for the ranking of municipalities at higher risk of food insecurity, based on a higher Flores-Romero Index, thus informing decision-makers. The index can also be used as a benchmark to measure progress in the implementation of policies and programs aimed at improving food security over time.